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Wednesday, October 14 • 14:05 - 14:35
Forecasting the structure of natural gas consumers pool with R

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Revenues of natural gas providers and distributors naturally strongly depend on the amount of delivered natural gas and its price. The retail prices could be different for different customers. Typically the price depends on the volume of consumed gas. In that case it would be useful to forecast the total amount of consumed gas within each tariff class, i.e., for each price level. If the tariff classes didn't depend on the consumption, then it could be solved by standard forecasting methods. Otherwise, customers can change tariff classes over time. This generates a dependency structure between classes. We have developped an R package for Czech gas distributor RWE GasNet, s.r.o., which implements a prediction model taking into account the described dependency structure. The package is also able to create the explanatory variables for the model from regular invoicing data. The whole process of estimating model parameters and forecasting the number of customers and their total consumption for each tariff class can therefore be done within this R package with no need of extra data preprocessing. In the presentation I will briefly introduce the design of the prediction model and the main features of the package.

avatar for Ondřej Konár

Ondřej Konár

Postdoctoral fellow, The Czech Academy of Sciences: Institute of Computer Science
Junior researcher (from 2004, but still feeling quite junior) with main interest in applied statistics. I have worked mainly on energy consumption modelling and forecasting, but also e.g. on parking lot occupancy forecasting, weather forecast statistical postprocessing, cloudiness... Read More →

Wednesday October 14, 2015 14:05 - 14:35 CEST
Mátyás I.